I’ve never surfed, even though I grew up in Whittier, California, not far from beaches with good waves. But as I’ve been writing this issue, an image has kept going through my mind of the electric school bus (ESB) transition as having surfed a good wave, or multiple sets of good waves, in recent years.
The Trump administration’s embrace of fossil fuels and antipathy for … well, many things, has brought different sets of waves into our ocean. Since they’re huge and unpredictable, let’s call them monster waves. Are these monster waves unsurfable, even deadly to the ESB transition?
I’m Alison Wiley here in Oregon, an ESB and equity geek, and a partner in MOVER, the resilience project in Hood River, Oregon. I’ve worked in low-carbon transportation since 2006, focusing on electric buses since 2016. Find my Electric School Bus website and back newsletters here. I help school bus fleets move forward with electrifying, by writing this newsletter and as a consultant and grant writer. This newsletter is a member of the nationwide, equity-focused Alliance For Electric School Buses (AESB).
Since my last newsletter (Who the Government is Stiffing, and What it Means) EPA’s Clean School Bus Program (CSBP) funds have been flowing again for rounds two and three. And payments for EPA’s Clean Medium and Heavy Duty program have been proceeding normally at this writing.
Going under in some places
But as I described earlier this year, contracts broken by the federal government have stopped various school districts in their tracks on their ESB progress, some backing out of their ESB awards and some renewing their commitment to fossil-fueled buses.
GreenPower looking a bit wobbly on its board. An Oregon district that landed Round 3 funding and ordered two GreenPower buses was advised by its local IC dealer (IC deals for GreenPower) to cancel the order, due to no delivery date in sight. A second Oregon district got wind of that and cancelled its GreenPower order originally placed in January 2024. On the other hand, a third district got service on its GreenPower buses from its dealer immediately upon request. That’s a positive sign.
Lion’s bankruptcy is a big wobble. Lion went down to zero employees as of May 2nd, and its huge factory in Illinois went up for auction. A former Lion employee states that prior to going under, Lion spent Clean School Bus (EPA) funds for 127 buses intended for 38 recipients. Non-fulfillment of all that erodes trust in the ESB transition, not just in one company. Because many Lions are owned by small, under-resourced rural districts, one idea that’s surfaced is that large, well-resourced, ESB friendly fleets might swap some diesel buses with their rural colleagues in exchange for their Lions. That idea, whether it ever plays out in real life or not, rings to me of resilience, like the surfers who bob back to the surface after wiping out.
Riding the curl in other places
Lion itself may be resurfacing. At this writing, Lion appears to have a set of Canadian buyers that plan to continue production of ESBs in its St. Jerome, Canada. Presumably the revived Lion would fulfill warranties on its hundreds of buses in operation across the U.S. and Canada. The Canadian government has long been supportive of ESBs, in part because its country produces abundant clean hydropower, which is a preferred fuel in the face of climate change.
EPA’s Clean School Bus Program may survive. At least, it has not been cut in Congress’s current reconciliation process. Two billion of the original five billion dollars remain to be spent. However, the program could be retooled to fund propane rather than electric buses, and/or changed in other ways.
Oregon’s role in the ESB transition continues, despite having no ESB goals or dedicated state funding, unlike states like New York and California. Portland General Electric (PGE), has an Electric School Bus Fund, managed by the dynamic Juliae Riva and showcased at a recent event in Salem. I offer PGE’s program details below to encourage other utilities nationwide in their existing or potential ESB offerings.
- 76 ESBs funded since 2019
- Across 16 school districts
- Rural, urban and suburban deployments
- No bus replacement requirement (different from EPA programs)
- Covers incremental bus costs plus chargers
- PGE’s funding source is Oregon Clean Fuels Program
Electric vans may cost less than gas vans at this point. Model 1 of Canby, Oregon is quoting $68-$70,000 for a Ford E-transit van, which includes a mobile charger and Ford Pro level 2 charging station, while quoting $70-$75,000 for its gas-powered Ford Transit van. Fuel and maintenance savings would then make total cost of ownership far lower here for electric than gas. I note e-vans are a more affordable first step into electric waters than ESBs.
Oregon’s proposed HB 2145 would fund some ESBs in Oregon with a revolving loan fund of 20 million/year for five years. It would be based on total cost of ownership (TCO) reaching parity over time, and include an exemption process. It’s not currently scheduled for a vote and I doubt that it will be; Oregon’s legislative session closes June 29th.
The deeper story is that Oregon, like many blue states, is concerned the Trump administration may cut off its federal funding. (By law, Congress, not the president, controls federal funding, but the rule of law has become wobbly). 30% of Oregon’s budget comes from federal funds. I can understand that my state is not up for adding new line-items to its budget, ESB related or otherwise.
Update on MOVER
MOVER project is issuing a Request For Qualifications (RFQ)to electrical companies able and willing to install the bidirectional resilience microgrid that PAE Engineers has designed for Wy’east Middle School in Hood River. Project manager Joe Wachunas of New Building Institute states that when an RFP is eventually issued and proposals come in, MOVER must take the lowest bid.
Back to the question: will the current monster waves of disruption create wipeouts that kill the ESB transition? When I googled “surfer deaths in monster wave wipeouts” just now I learned monster waves have killed at least six surfers since 1994. But I don’t think the ESB transition will follow those surfers’ sad fates. One reason I think that relates to the artificial intelligence (AI) that instantly generated the above data, and much of the data that many of us are now relying on.
Bigger Picture
AI, growing rapidly, requires massive amounts of energy. ESB fleets can store massive amounts of energy. Solar power is far and away the cheapest form of new energy to install, followed by wind power. Because the sun and wind generate power intermittently, they partner very well with ESBs, which are driven just intermittently. As MOVER and other projects demonstrate, ESBs can, with bidirectional technology, discharge their stored energy into buildings and grids that sorely need it. Another piece of the energy puzzle is that the U.S. population has grown about 68% in the last 50 years (HCR), heaping ever-larger energy loads on utility grids that are aging, outdated and being thrashed by extreme weather events. Read on.
In defensive maneuvers, some utilities in the arid West will create deliberate power outages this summer, called Planned Power Shut Offs (PPSO’s). These are unpopular events, understandably. PPSO’s seek to prevent spark-caused wildfires that wreak huge destruction and hugely expensive lawsuits against the utilities. MOVER-like projects seek to provide, in outages, resilience centers with basic services like cooling people off and charging their cell phones. Let’s note that people only go, in stressful situations, to places they already know and trust. Hence MOVER’s choice of a school gym to be its resilience center.
Many utilities are pivoting into a distributed generation model of producing and delivering their electricity near the point of use, rather than the old, centralized model. ESBs, along with things like solar panels and battery storage, fit that new model. As CALSTART has pointed out, school buses in general (any/all fuel types) have long served their communities during blue-sky scenarios as well as dark-sky scenarios. CALSTART’s online ESB forums are excellent; I’m going to the next one on June 11th and suggest you consider it, too. Register here.
Finally, the 5,000 ESBs now on the road in the U.S. (Canada has many more) have gained some life of their own. Much charging infrastructure exists, manufacturers are tooled to make them, dozens of districts are proficient with ESB technology, and dozens more are on their way to that proficiency. I think the ESB transition is slowed down by the monster waves, but sturdy on its board.
Upcoming Conferences
School Transportation News (STN) West, Reno, NV. Green Bus Summit is July 13-14, with the conference extending from July 11-16. Early bird deadline is June 6th. I’m organizing a get-together for WASBEs (women who work in school bus electrification) – please reply if you’d like to be included.
Green Transportation Summit and Expo, June 10-12, Tacoma, WA (two months earlier than usual)
Oregon Pupil Transportation Association Conference, June 16-19, Bend, OR. I’m co-presenting on rural ESBs on the 19th with Kyle Rosselle of Hood River County School District
STN’s Industry Calendar lists school bus related conferences nationwide (not necessarily ESB related)
Roadmap Conference by Forth, Detroit, MI, October 14-16. The clean transportation ecosystem, especially charging, equity and light/medium/heavy duty, is Roadmap’s focus, not ESBs per se.
Center for Transportation and the Environment (CTE) is skipping its 2025 conference, with plans to resume in 2026.
Financial support for this newsletter is provided in part by the World Resources Institute. While the World Resources Institute may engage as a partner on content, it does not control, nor does it necessarily endorse, the contents of this newsletter.
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